Investment Portfolio #2 – Welcome to 2015

Finally the second instalment of Investment Portfolio. It has been awhile since the last and not THAT much have changed, except it is 2015 and I sold my two major oil investments, LUPE & AOI. Both at a substantially worse rate than they were valued at in my last report.

Africa Oil (AOI) I sold at a 75%, or thereabout, loss.
Lundin Petroleum (LUPE) was sold at a ~70%  profit, compared to 91%+ during the last report.

I should have sold both at least a week earlier but procrastinated. I do believe in both in the old term but the market can remain fickle for long, especially considering the macroeconomic realities that have plagued the end of 2014 and are likely to continue into 2015.

Without further ado, my investment portfolio as of 2015-01-04:

NameSymbol% of totalChange % since purchase
Change % since last report:3.12%
ABB LTDABB7,25%28%
ATLAS COPCO BATCO-B11.59%119%
BILLERUD KORSNÄSBILL4.90%-
ENQUESTENQ0.35%-60%
ERICSSON BERIC-B2.75%36%
ETRIONETX0.04%71%
HANSELSBANKEN ASHB-A24.02%-
NORDEANDA-SEK7.18%-
SANDVIKSAND0.55%31%
VOLVO BVOLV-B1.24%16%
Handelsbanken Sverigefond-40.13%102.16%

Banks are still the biggest investment by far. The portfolio has become a lot less diverse since selling LUPE and AOI, especially considering I have not reinvested the money yet.

All in all, the remaining investments have increased by 3.12% Which isn’t terrible but all in all, not a great end to 2014 but could be worse. I am still 100% in on the Stockholm stock market, perhaps it is time to diverse shares outside Sweden. I am looking at some US stock as well as something like a EU-wide Index fund or something like that.

Onward and upward in 2015!

-P

Bitcoin: Volatility Without Recourse

I like to keep my money digitally, in fact I have a distinct dislike for physical cash. Luckily I just about never carry any cash thanks to how well established debit/credit cards are in Sweden. However, I am not a fan of alternative ‘currencies’ such as bitcoin. Sure, it is digital, but it is also terrible in just about every other respect.

I guess most of my dislike stems from the fans of bitcoin, whom all sound like boiler-room pump and dump salesmen. Bitcoin is terribly suited as a currency in its current state, it is quite frankly too volatile, too harsh on consumers and quasi-deflationary.

Bitcoin exchange rate, 1 year

Bitcoin exchange rate, 1 year, from coinbase.com

The price of bitcoin has been volatile over the last year to say the least. It was at one point worth over $1000 per bitcoin but the price is at the time of writing at $325 per bitcoin. Not a terribly good investment from those who bought in at $1000. We should not kid ourselves either, most of the people holding bitcoin today are speculators or use bitcoin to pay for illegal activities, both alternatives aren’t exactly something that inspire confidence in a fledgling currency.

Another problem is that bitcoin is very prone to market manipulations, the volumes are small enough that a few individuals can influence the price with ease. The high exchange rate in the end of 2014 looks like a pump and dump scheme to say the least. At the same time most people could not withdraw their bitcoin or fiat currencies from the biggest exchange, MtGox, leading to an unhealthy environment where the market was non-functional for all intents and purposes.

Still, the price has made a terrific journey for the last year, but the volume of trade is still largely the same, it has increased somewhat but has in no way matched the price curve. The volume is quite simply small and insignificant at any reasonable perspective, especially when comparing to other currencies or even just trade in general.

Bitcoin transaction volume

Bitcoin transaction volume, from coinbase.com

The extreme volatility of bitcoin, in comparison to normal currencies makes it a terrible store of value and even worse for normal spending. It is a terrible speculation Ponzi scheme run by pump and dump salesmen and gold bugs who fear government backed currencies. Here is a hint; gold and bitcoin will not save you from the Rapture. Bitcoin transactions are irreversible, which in itself should disqualify as a new/better currency. Bitcoin totally lacks consumer protections and does not make it easy to keep your assets secure. Practically anyone owning bitcoin is at risk of losing it due to the slightest mistake, and without ANY recourse. That is a terrible feature in a new currency.

Want to get rich? Invest in index funds with no or very low fees. Be diverse, be long-term and for the love of god, don’t gamble with money you cannot afford to lose.

 

– P

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Master Thesis: The Relativity of Enterprise Systems Implementation Success

I have finished my master thesis, titled The Relativity of Enterprise Systems Implementation Success. The thesis studies an ERP implementation after go-live. I am finally done with a month to spare before starting my new job as IT-Trainee at H&M. Which is going to be very exciting, the job will involve rolling out H&M’s new ERP system globally.

Master thesis

Below is a link to the final version of the thesis. I have also included the abstract below. The thesis is available as a pdf here ( or click the image below) or at the VU Library’s website.

The Relativity of Enterprise Systems Implementation Success

The Relativity of Enterprise Systems Implementation Success

Thesis abstract

Enterprise system (ES) implementations have been researched extensively throughout the years as it is something almost all organizations have to go through, and the implementations are often failures. This study aims to expand the knowledge on the perceived success of an ES implementation in the later stages of the implementation process. The study conducts a case study in the onward and upward phase of an ES Implementation at a Dutch university and use a case study from the shakedown phase in the same organization to analyse the success perspectives theory. The study aims to verify the theory by conducting a longitudinal study.

Theory states that there are five different success perspectives: management, project, user, correspondence and system success that influence the perceived success of the ES implementation. The study puts forward a set of propositions based on the Critical Success Factors that influence the perceived success for each perspective.

The study contributes to theory by verifying the theoretical findings of prior research. The case study shows that all five success perspectives are important in the onward and upward phase but that there may be a difference in their relative importance. Management success appears to have a lesser impact on the decisions taken by the organization then the other success perspectives. Lastly, contrary to theory, project success appears to be important in the later stages of the implementation.

Future research should include a truly longitudinal study that is carried out from the chartering phase until the onward and upward phase. Additionally, studies should be carried out in several different organizations, in order to gain as much generalizability as possible.

-P

Did you find this post interesting, illuminating, controversial or dumb? Leave a comment below or send me a tweet (@Chronoo).